Projecting the NASL Spring Season with Football Manager 2016

If you’ve never played Football Manager, good god man, don’t. It is one of the most addicting sports games on the market, particularly if you enjoy business and sports and like the idea of simulating the experience of running a soccer club, similar to how Out of the Park Baseball allows you to run a baseball team. It’s absolutely engrossing.

Football Manager also has perhaps the best database of soccer talent in the world. You can find pretty much any professional player rated by the game’s many contributors by searching the editor. I used the editor to modify the Official Winter Update database to make the NASL rosters accurate up to the New York Cosmos signing of Niko Kranjcar (minus a few rookies across the league who aren’t in the game).

One thing that immediately stands out is how the ratings quantify that Miami FC and Rayo OKC have constructed serious rosters. Replacing the San Antonio Scorpions and Atlanta Silverbacks with these teams upgrades the quality of the league overall.

Obviously, the rating process is not perfect. Some ratings that are questionable – is Jimmy Maurer really only an 89 overall on a 200 point scale? That doesn’t make sense to me as someone who watches every Cosmos game. By and large, the ratings are pretty solid and regardless this is the best sim software of its kind. That being said, this is not scientific but is done for entertainment purposes.

Roster Ratings

First, let’s take a look at the top 15 players on each roster based on FM2016’s ratings. The format will be Name, Position(s) – Current Rating/Max Rating. For older players, the max rating is a thing of the past, just to show you how good they once were. For younger players, it shows you the promise of how good they may one day be.

Carolina Railhawks

The Railhawks have one of the weaker rosters in NASL according to FM2016’s estimation. The Railhawks do not have one player rated above 100. Admirers of Tiyi Shipalane such as myself would take issue with that.

Tiyi Shipalane MR/L, AMR/L – 98/102
Matt Watson, M/AMC – 98/98
James Marcelin, DM/MC – 95/103
Nazmi Albadawi, AMR/C/L, ST – 95/108
Akira Fitzgerald, GK – 95/98
Brian Shriver, AML/ST – 94/101
Kupono Low, DL – 93/97
Austin Da Luz, ML/AML – 92/103
Connor Tobin, DC – 91/97
Simon Mensing, DC – 91/105
Paul Black, DL/C – 89/95
Marvin Ceballos, MR, AMR/C – 88/105
Kareem Moses, DR/L/C – 88/96
Brian Sylvestre, GK – 88/116
Alex Perez, DC/DM – 88/101

FC Edmonton

Newcomers Nik Ledgerwood and Adam Eckersley replace Lance Liang as the top rated players in Edmonton. Like the Railhawks, FC Edmonton’s roster is not rated very highly by the game relative to the other teams in NASL, though Edmonton is stronger at the top than Carolina, it is not as deep.

Nik Ledgerwood, DM/MC – 102/110
Adam Eckersley, DL – 101/114
Pape Diakite, DC – 98/123
Sainey Nyassi, AMR/L – 98/106
Albert Watson, DC – 98/99
Tomi Ameobi, ST – 93/95
Daryl Fordyce, AMR/C, ST – 93/96
Jake Keegan, AML/ST – 91/92
Edson Edward, DR/C – 91/98
Matt Van Oekel, GK – 91/95
Dustin Corea, MR/C, AMR/C – 90/102
Ritchie Jones, MR/C – 89/90
Pablo Cruz, MR, AMR/C – 88/105
Johann Smith, DL/ML – 88/90
Mallan Roberts, DC – 85/106

Fort Lauderdale Strikers

The Strikers are one of the better teams in the league according to FM2016. Strikers fans might have expected PC to rate higher, but the club still has eight players rated over 100, even if two are goalkeepers. Angulo rated at 93 at the 15th best slot shows Fort Lauderdale is deeper than Carolina or Edmonton as well.

Adrianinho, ML/C, AML/C – 115/135
Bruno, GK – 114/134
Matheus Carvallho, AML/ST – 112/122
Aurello Saco-Vertiz, DL/ML – 107/108
Gabriel, MR/AMR – 106/143
Diego Restrepo, GK – 101/110
Dalton, DC – 101/130
Kleberson, DM/MC – 101/154
PC, DL/AML – 98/126
Maicon Santos, ST – 98/110
Julius James, DR/C – 97/108
Luis Zapata, DL/DM – 97/107
Gale Agbossoumonde, DC – 96/110
Nana Attakora, DC – 96/105
Jose Angulo, AML/R, ST – 93/99

Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven finds newcomers among its top four players. Brad Ring is the best rated holdover, and Indy fans might take issue with the game’s rating of Dylan Mares. From the appearance of these ratings, one would expect Indy to be in the same class as Carolina and Edmonton.

Jon Busch, GK – 106/126
Lovel Palmer, DR/DM/MC – 102/104
Nemanja Vukovic, DL/ML – 98/100
Sinisa Ubiparipovic, M/AMC – 97/103
Brad Ring, DM, MR/C – 96/108
Dino Williams, ST – 94/101
Justin Braun, ST – 94/99
Colin Falvey, DR/C – 94/97
Greg Janicki, DC – 93/95
Dragan Stojkov, ML/C, AML/C – 92/105
Stephen DeRoux, DR/L, ML – 89/98
Marco Franco, DR – 89/100
Nicholas Patterson, MR/C – 87/94
Dylan Mares, M/AMC – 87/105
Eamon Zayed, AMC/ST – 84/101

Jacksonville Armada

Jacksonville has four players rated by FM2016 at 100 or better, with newcomers Matt Fondy and Richie Ryan falling just short at 98. Among the holdovers, Keita ranks highest with goalkeeper Gallardo and Pascal Millien following.

Pekka Lagerblom, DC/DM/MC – 104/118
Lucas Scaglia, DM/MC – 103/116
Alhassane Keita, ST – 102/136
Junior Sandoval, MC, AMC/R – 100/105
Matt Fondy, AML/ST – 98/100
Richie Ryan, DM/MC – 98/105
Miguel Gallardo, GK – 96/105
Pascal Millien, MR/L, AMR/L/C – 94/103
Charles Eloundou, AMR/L, ST – 92/111
Mechack Jerome, DL – 92/96
Jemal Johnson, ML, AMR/L – 91/115
Alex Dixon, MR, AMR/L – 90/96
Alberto Navarro, DC – 89/95
Tyler Ruthven, DC – 89/96
Matt Bahner, DR/MR – 87/93

Miami FC

Miami FC is positioned for a remarkable debut season. Matuzalem is the highest ranked player in NASL according to FM2016, and Wilson Palacios gives Miami a second player rated 120 or better. Cvitanich also rates among the league’s best, and the roster has quality throughout.

Matuzalem, DM/MC – 127/153
Wilson Palacios, MC – 120/155
Dario Cvitanich, ST – 118/145
Adailton, DC – 110/127
Dane Richards, MR/AMR – 107/117
Daniel Vega, GK – 100/120
Brad Rusin, DC – 98/107
Pablo Campos, ST – 97/102
Blake Smith, ML/AML – 97/106
Rhett Bernstein, DC – 93/94
Jaime Chavez, ST – 93/96
Ariel Martinez, MR/AMR/ST – 92/111
Jonathan Borrajo, DR/DM – 92/99
Mason Trafford, DL/DC – 91/95
David Sierra, GK – 85/105

Minnesota United FC

Minnesota United’s roster ratings suggest it will be one of the best teams in the league again, in its send-off season. While there are NASL-elite rated players at the top in Ibson and N’Djock, the quality in depth across the top 15 is most remarkable compared to the other teams.

Ibson, DM/MC/MR – 118/142
Sammy N’Djock, GK – 116/125
Lance Liang, DL/ML/AML – 103/109
Christian Ramirez, ST – 102/115
Danny Cruz, ML/R, AML/R – 101/102
Bernardo Anor, ML/C, AML/C – 99/105
Ben Speas, ML/R, AML/R – 99/108
Stefano Pinho, AML/ST – 98/104
Aaron Pitchkolan, DC/DM – 98/104
Kristian Nicht, GK – 97/101
Justin Davis, DL – 97/99
Daniel Mendes, MR/AMR, ST – 97/115
Jaime Watson, ML/R – 94/102
Tiago, DC – 94/115
Greg Jordan, DM/MC – 93/103

New York Cosmos

It will surprise no one that the Cosmos have the best rated roster in NASL. The recent signing of Niko Kranjcar gives the team its top player, while Juan Arango and Yohandry Orozco amount to a league-leading 3 players rated 120 or better. Fans might be pleasantly surprised to see newcomer David Ochieng regarded so well by the game, but the aforementioned 89 rating of supporter favorite Jimmy Maurer means he fails to make a deep top 15. Roversio and his 102 rating will be missed in the Spring.

Niko Kranjcar, ML, AML/C – 122/152
Juan Arango, ML, AML/C – 122/145
Yohandry Orozco, ML, AML/C – 120/127
David Ochieng, DC/DM – 109/(110-140)
Ayoze, DL/ML/AML – 109/114
Gabriel Farfan, DL – 106/116
Hunter Freeman, DR – 106/110
Adam Moffat, DM/MC – 104/106
Roversio, DC – 102/109
Jairo Arrieta, ST – 102/114
Carlos Mendes, DC – 102/107
Michael Lahoud, MC/MR/DR – 100/105
Yasmani Duk, AMC/ST – 98/108
Andres Flores, MR, AMR/C – 98/104
Danny Szetela, DM/MC/MR – 94/100

Ottawa Fury

The Fury will look like a new team in 2016, much to the chagrin of their fans who enjoyed an unexpected Fall title run last year. Peiser was the top goalkeeper in the league in 2015 so it is no surprise to see him rated among the team’s best. With the loss of so many quality players, Ottawa had to bring in many new faces. Marcel de Jong is the best rated player on the team, with Jonny Steele and Pablo Dyego adding to holdover Julian De Guzman as the players rated over 100.

Marcel de Jong, DL/ML – 119/125
Romuald Peiser, GK – 111/114
Jonny Steele, ML/AML – 104/108
Julian De Guzman, DM/MC – 104/115
Pablo Dyego, DR/MR – 102/125
Kyle Porter, MR/ML – 95/105
Rich Balchan, DR/C, DM – 94/99
Paulo Junior, AMR/C – 94/97
James Bailey, DM/MC – 93/120
Rafael Alves, DC – 92/96
Lance Rozeboom, M/AMC – 90/93
Carl Howarth, AMR/ST – 87/90
Brandon Poltronieri, DL/ML – 86/100
Dennis Chin, ST – 86/96
Fernando Timbo, DL – 83/95

Rayo OKC

When Rayo OKC was announced, NASL fans were confounded by the move to allow the team in the league on such short notice. A long period of quiet from Rayo added to the concern, until the team made a flurry of impressive signings. FM2016’s ratings suggest that Rayo will be one of the better teams in the league. Giorgos Samaras was the cherry on top, but the team possesses an impressive seven players rated above 100. NASL fans will take issue with the relatively low rating of Billy Forbes.

Giorgos Samaras, AML/ST – 120/135
Juanan, DC – 110/119
Robbie Findley, ST – 107/109
Derek Boateng, DM/MC – 107/150
Daniel Fernandes, GK – 105/120
Michel Garbini, DL/DM/ML – 104/125
Marvin Chavez, ML/R, AML/R – 103/118
Erick Norales, DL/C – 98/114
Richard Menjivar, DM/MC – 96/102
Kosuke Kimura, DR/L – 96/106
Rauwshan McKenzie, DC – 93/100
Pecka, DM/MC – 93/98
Sebastian Velasquez, ML, AML/C – 93/102
Billy Forbes, AML/R, ST – 91/102
Caleb Patterson, GK – 89/112

Tampa Bay Rowdies

The Rowdies boast a deep roster filled with quality. FM2016’s top two Tampa Bay players are both goalkeepers, but the 15th best player is rated above 90. Fans might feel that Tom Heinemann is underrated by the game after his performances last season. Freddy Adu’s ratings may also be called into question.

Michael Langer, GK – 114/118
Matt Pickens, GK – 109/119
Freddy Adu, AML/C – 105/123
Neill Collins, DC – 101/116
Khalif Alhassan, MR, AML/C/R – 99/108
Juan Guerra, DM/MC – 98/110
Darnell King, DR/MR – 98/106
Tamika Mkandawire, DC – 98/118
Junior Burgos, ML, AML/C – 97/101
Georgi Hristov, AMC/ST – 97/119
Tom Heinemann, ST – 96/100
Frankie Sanfilippo, DR/C – 96/101
Danny Mwanga, ST – 94/108
Keith Savage, MR/C – 93/100
Walter Ramirez, M/AML – 92/97

Simulating the Spring

If the ratings are to be believed, there should be two classes of teams in the league. The first tier will be the New York Cosmos, Minnesota United FC, the Fort Lauderdale Strikers, the Tampa Bay Rowdies, Miami FC and Rayo OKC. The second tier will be the Carolina Railhawks, FC Edmonton, Ottawa Fury, Indy Eleven and Jacksonville Armada. That being said, no one would have seen Ottawa coming last year by looking at it this way, so the games need to be played on the field. Prior to kicking the sim off, I dropped Roversio from the Cosmos roster since he’s out for the Spring, and locked transfers.

Prior to the start of the season, the game predicts the following outcome based on roster strength:

New York Cosmos
Fort Lauderdale Strikers
Minnesota United FC
Miami FC
Rayo OKC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Ottawa Fury
Jacksonville Armada
Indy Eleven
FC Edmonton
Carolina Railhawks

The game generated its own schedule, so in this version round one’s highlight was an upset by Minnesota United of the Cosmos 2-1. The Railhawks also pulled off a 2-0 upset of the Fury, while Jacksonville prevailed over Rayo 2-0, the Strikers downed the Rowdies 1-0 and Indy also beat Edmonton 1-0. Miami had the bye.

The second series saw Rayo OKC best the Strikers 2-1, Ottawa have one of their famous nil-nil draws with Minnesota, Miami beat Edmonton 3-1, the Rowdies pummel Carolina 4-1 and the Cosmos bounce back to beat Indy 3-1. Jacksonville had the bye.

Round three was marked by upsets again. The Cosmos were setback once more, this time 3-0 by Miami, Jacksonville also upset the Strikers 2-1 and Indy overturned the Fury 2-1 while Minnesota and the Rowdies drew 0-0 and Carolina and OKC drew 2-2. Edmonton had off.

The fourth series saw more bad news for the Cosmos, with the jinx coming this time from Edmonton 2-1. Jacksonville won 2-1 over Carolina, Ottawa and Miami drew 2-2, Minnesota beat OKC 2-1 and Tampa Bay beat Indy 2-1. The Strikers were the bye team.

Round five saw the Cosmos bounce back 2-1 over Ottawa, Minnesota and Fort Lauderdale draw 0-0, Indy upset Jacksonville 3-1, Rayo OKC top fellow expansion side Miami FC 2-0 and Tampa Bay best Edmonton 2-0.

Round six sees the league hit brush past the halfway point in the season. Carolina topped the Strikers 2-1, Edmonton beat their Canadian rivals Ottawa 2-1, Indy upset Rayo 2-1, Tampa beat their new Florida rivals Miami FC 2-0 while Jacksonville surprised Minnesota 1-0. The Cosmos had off.

At the rough halfway mark, the league table looks like (W-D-L):

Tampa Bay Rowdies, 4-1-1, 13 points
Indy Eleven, 4-0-2, 12 points
Jacksonville Armada, 4-0-1, 12 points
Minnesota United, 2-3-1, 9 points
Carolina Railhawks, 2-1-2, 7 points
Miami FC, 2-1-2, 7 points
Rayo OKC, 2-1-3, 7 points
FC Edmonton, 2-0-3, 6 points
New York Cosmos, 2-0-3, 6 points
Fort Lauderdale Strikers, 1-1-3, 4 points
Ottawa Fury, 0-2-4, 2 points

That is quite a difference from the game’s projected table. Through this midpoint, Miami’s Dario Cvitanich and Jacksonville’s Alhassane Keita top the charts with five goals.

Round seven kicked off the second half with an emphatic 3-0 victory by the Rowdies over the Cosmos, further digging New York’s hole in the short season format. Edmonton crushed Rayo 4-1, while Jacksonville upended Miami 3-1. Minnesota topped Carolina 2-0, and Indy and the Strikers drew 1-1. Ottawa had off.

The eighth series saw the Cosmos try to make up lost ground with a 4-2 victory over Rayo, with Edmonton topped Jacksonville 1-0. The rest of the matches were draws, with Tampa and Ottawa 0-0, Carolina and Indy 2-2 and the South Florida derby resulting in a 2-2 tie between Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Minnesota rested this week.

Round nine’s big winners were the Strikers, who downed Edmonton 3-0. Miami also won 3-2 over Carolina while the Fury beat Rayo 2-1. The Cosmos lost more ground in their effort to rise back to the top by drawing 2-2 with Jacksonville, while Indy and Minnesota drew 1-1. League leaders Tampa Bay were off.

The tenth round saw Rayo play their final match of the Spring, winning 1-0 over Tampa Bay. The Cosmos beat the golden age rivals the Strikers 2-0, while Jacksonville climbed atop the league with a 3-1 victory over Ottawa. Minnesota drew 1-1 with Miami, while Carolina and Edmonton shared the spoils at 2-2. Indy was off.

The final series saw the Rowdies reclaim the top spot and win the Spring season in dramatic fashion with a head-to-head victory for the title over Jacksonville 3-2. The Cosmos earned three more points too-little-too-late for the Spring, 2-1 over the Railhawks. Minnesota won the Fly Over Derby against Edmonton 3-1, while Miami topped Indy 2-0. Ottawa drew 2-2 with the Strikers.

The final table shaped up as follows (W-D-L):

Tampa Bay Rowdies, 6-2-2, 20 points
Jacksonville Armada, 6-1-3, 19 points
Minnesota United, 4-5-1, 17 points
New York Cosmos, 5-1-4, 16 points
Indy Eleven, 4-3-3, 15 points
Miami FC, 4-3-3, 15 points
FC Edmonton, 4-1-5, 13 points
Rayo OKC, 3-1-6, 10 points
Fort Lauderdale Strikers, 2-4-4, 10 points
Carolina Railhawks, 2-3-5, 9 points
Ottawa Fury, 1-4-5, 7 points

Screen Shot 2016-03-20 at 8.51.57 AM

Keita ended up taking home the goal scoring title with 8, closely trailed by Cvitanich at 7. Juan Arango was the highest rated performer in the league with a 7.79 average, followed by the Strikers’ Adrianinho at 7.51 and Cvitanich at 7.50. Junior Sandoval of Jacksonville, Adrianinho and Austin Da Luz of Carolina led in assists at 4. Arango had the most man of the match awards at 4. Tampa Bay’s Michael Langer kept a league leading 5 clean sheets, while Lucas Scaglia of Jacksonville played the dirtiest with 5 yellow cards.

Screen Shot 2016-03-20 at 8.55.54 AM

Lesson: The Short Season Lends Itself To Unpredictable Results

While the game’s projected season table before the sim lined up with expectations, the actual results of the sim go to show what a crapshoot the short 10 game Spring season can be. Of course, I did only one sim of the season since I don’t have time to do a Monte Carlo process and run the thing 1000 times. I imagine if you did that, the results would shake out more like the game’s projected standings most of the time. In real life, they only play it once. A bad run of form can doom a talented team to a poor finish as with the Strikers in this sim, while a hot streak can see a relative underdog like Jacksonville rise toward the top. Over the course of the longer combined Spring-Fall season, the table should normalize toward expected results, so therefore part of the fun of the Spring season is it is the best time for an underdog to lock up an unexpected playoff spot.